Bitget UEX Daily | AI Return Concerns Plunge Tech Stocks; OPEC+ Maintains Output; Bitcoin Shows Weak Recovery

I. Key News Highlights

Technology & Risk Appetite | Rising Pressure on AI Spending Payoff, Nasdaq Drops 2.86%

On October 30, the Nasdaq Composite dropped 2.86%, the S&P 500 Index fell 1.82%, and all seven magnificents closed lower. On the first trading day after earnings, Intel plunged 28.58%; Amazon declined 1.41% over the same period, contrasting its AWS growth with pressure on free cash flow.

The divergence between earnings reports and stock prices indicates that the market is raising expectations for AI investment returns and cash flow. The next step is to watch whether tech stocks can halt their declines and if subsequent earnings reports can prove that incremental revenue is sufficient to cover expansion costs; revenue growth alone may not be enough to justify valuations.

Energy Policy | OPEC+ Seven Members Maintain December Production Target

Saudi Arabia, Russia, and five other OPEC+ members decided on November 1 to maintain September's established production quotas for December, with another meeting scheduled for November 29. This decision pertains to production targets and does not imply that actual supply or export volumes will remain unchanged simultaneously.

While the policy continues temporarily, oil prices still require assessment based on actual supply, transportation, and demand shifts. For the market, cash flow support for energy companies coexists with cost pressures in other sectors, and oil price direction cannot be inferred solely from production targets.

US Economy | Q3 Employment Costs Rose 0.8% QoQ, Focus on Manufacturing Sector Tonight

The US reported on October 30 that civilian worker employment costs in Q3 rose 0.8% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 3.4% year-over-year (YoY); among these, wages and salaries increased 0.7% QoQ, and benefit costs rose 0.9%. At 23:00 Beijing Time today, the October ISM Manufacturing PMI and September construction spending will be released.

Labor costs continue to rise. Tonight, attention should turn to whether manufacturing demand and input prices show new divergence. If orders remain weak while price pressures persist, corporate profit margins and room for monetary easing may face simultaneous constraints.

II. Market Review

Commodities & FX Performance

Gold remains below $4,000, oil prices stay elevated, and the US Dollar Index hovers around 102. The impact of commodities on inflation coexists with adjustments in tech stock valuations; Brent has rolled to the January contract, so its spread compared to the previous December contract should not be directly equated to the daily price drop.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: Approximately 78,182.50 USDT, up 0.63% in 24 hours.

ETH: Approximately 2,274.63 USDT, up 0.53% in 24 hours.

Total cryptocurrency market capitalization: Approximately $2.61 trillion, down 3.25% in 24 hours; this figure was updated at 09:02 Beijing Time.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Observation

The more prominent potential short liquidation cluster above is approximately $78,500–$79,000, about 0.49%–1.13% away from the current price; the potential long liquidation cluster below is approximately $76,950–$77,600, about 0.66%–1.49% away. The near upper band is slightly closer. If the rebound continues, volatility caused by short hedging and leverage adjustments in this area needs monitoring.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Observation

The more prominent potential short liquidation cluster above is approximately $2,285–$2,300, about 0.54%–1.20% away; the potential long liquidation cluster below is approximately $2,240–$2,255, about 0.78%–1.44% away. It is currently closer to the upper region. If the rebound stalls, observe support formation near the lower near-band.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC

A composite cost estimate for US spot BTC ETFs released by Glassnode on October 28 is approximately $81,500, with the current token price about 4.15% below this reference; Strategy disclosed on October 29 that it held 848,517 BTC as of October 25 at an average cost of approximately $75,446, with the current token price roughly 3.54% higher. The above differences represent un-leveraged price changes relative to holding costs and do not reflect overall returns for ETF investors or the company.

One-Sentence Market Outlook

For BTC, monitor the near end of the upper liquidation zone around $78,500; for ETH, watch the vicinity of $2,285. If prices pull back, monitor $77,600 for BTC and $2,255 for ETH. Strategy's cost sits about 1.99% away from the lower boundary of BTC's lower liquidation zone, forming an adjacent observation band, but this does not guarantee automatic support; the composite ETF cost remains positioned significantly higher.

Major US Stock Indices Performance

All three major indices declined synchronously, with the Nasdaq experiencing the largest drop. Pressure on tech-heavy weights dragged down index performance, while energy stocks rallied counter-trend, indicating that profit and valuation logic are diverging across sectors.

Magnificent Seven Performance

The Magnificent Seven posted zero gains and seven losses, with Nvidia suffering the steepest decline. The market correction has encompassed major tech weights; subsequently, earnings guidance and cash flow need to be monitored for divergence rather than pricing all AI-related companies under a single logic.

Sector Movement Observation

Semiconductors: Intel fell 28.58%, AMD dropped 10.88%, and Nvidia declined 4.22%. Intel's PC demand outlook and margin guidance have made the sustainability of hardware growth a focal point.

Energy: ExxonMobil rose 2.16%, and Chevron gained 1.75%. Earnings and cash return capability form the core observation for the sector, though performance remains influenced by crude prices and refining margins.

Crypto-Related Equities: Coinbase fell 10.62%, Strategy dropped 7.84%, and Robinhood declined 7.21%. The decline in related stocks occurred in a different timeframe compared to Monday's slight 24-hour crypto rebound and should not be treated as a direct synchronous divergence.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key US Stocks

Intel (INTC) | Bright Growth, Next Quarter Profit Realization Under Pressure

Event Overview: Intel reported Q3 revenue of $16.5 billion on October 29, up 21% year-over-year, with non-GAAP EPS of $0.52; Q4 revenue guidance stands at $15–16 billion, with non-GAAP EPS guidance at $0.25. The stock closed down 28.58% on October 30 at $65.76.

Market Interpretation: Data center growth coexists with PC demand headwinds. The company anticipates PC industry weakness to persist at least through the first half of next year, requiring investors to assess whether capacity expansion investments, product mix, and margins can align with revenue growth.

Investment Implications: Subsequent focus will be on data center supply rollout, PC business demand, and Q4 gross margin realization. Faster-than-expected growth in the current quarter does not mean profitability pressures are resolved for the next quarter.

Amazon (AMZN) | AWS Accelerates, Cash Flow Remains Valuation Test

Event Overview: Amazon reported Q3 revenue of approximately $201.9 billion on October 29, up 12% YoY; AWS revenue reached $45.984 billion, surging 39.3% YoY. Free cash flow for the trailing twelve months ending Q3 was a net outflow of $42.4 billion. The stock fell 1.41% on October 30 to close at $240.35.

Market Interpretation: AWS demand growth is already reflected in revenue, but infrastructure investments continue to strain cash flow. The market must evaluate when high capital deployment will translate into sustained cash returns, looking beyond mere cloud business growth rates.

Investment Implications: Monitor AWS order conversion, capital expenditure pacing, and free cash flow recovery. The $42.4 billion figure reflects a trailing twelve-month metric and should not be misconstrued as a single-quarter cash outflow.

ExxonMobil (XOM) | Cash Flow & Shareholder Returns Support Relative Performance

Event Overview: The company reported Q3 GAAP earnings of approximately $15.4 billion and adjusted EPS of $4.23 on October 30, alongside operating cash flow of $25.7 billion and free cash flow of $19.1 billion. Shares rose 2.16% on the same day to close at $187.25.

Market Interpretation: Robust cash generation provides energy stocks with distinct profit support during tech valuation corrections. The company concurrently announced a $20 billion buyback plan expiring in 2027, contingent on favorable market conditions.

Investment Implications: Monitor cash flow resilience amid falling oil prices, refining margins, and buyback execution. Single-quarter profitability in a high-oil environment should not be linearly extrapolated to long-term earnings levels.

IV. Market & Project Updates

Tether Released Q3 Reserve Attestation. A report disclosed on October 30 showed total reserve assets of approximately $191.5 billion as of September 30, including excess reserves of about $7.95 billion and holdings of direct and indirect US short-term Treasuries amounting to roughly $132.4 billion. Reserve composition and redemption liquidity remain key focal points for stablecoin analysis; attestation reports should be distinguished from comprehensive financial audits.

The Daily Dividend Arrangement for Strategy’s STRC Has Taken Effect. According to the company's announcement on October 29, STRC implemented a daily dividend mechanism starting November 1. As of October 25, dollar-denominated assets totaled approximately $5.07 billion, which the company states can cover dividend and interest obligations for roughly 3.4 years. Continued monitoring of cash reserves, financing costs, and preferred share prices is required; the dividend structure should not be conflated with new BTC buying pressure.

Exchange Service Recovery Progress. Binance announced officially on November 1 that it will phase in the restoration of withdrawals, confirming user funds are secure and associated losses will be covered by the platform; specific supported assets and networks are subject to official open-status announcements.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Key Events Outlook: Manufacturing data should be closely scrutinized for new orders, employment, and price components. If demand recovery coincides with renewed price pressures, markets will need to rebalance growth versus interest rate expectations. Conversely, weakening demand could subject tech companies' ability to execute expansion plans to stricter scrutiny.

Institutional View: Oliver Pursche, Senior Vice President at Wealthspire Advisors, noted on October 30 that the market is focused on whether AI investments will yield positive returns and the timeline for realization. Looking ahead to subsequent earnings, tracking cash returns and execution capabilities proves more valuable than merely gauging expansion scale.

This article is provided for market information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.