HTX DeepThink: Temporary rebound in U.S. stocks failed to drive BTC, crypto market faces independent capital supply-demand imbalance
on November 13, Chloe, a contributor to HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, pointed out that US equities and crypto assets experienced further divergence this week, with sticky inflation, real interest rates, and the sustainability of corporate earnings emerging as key variables in market pricing. Inflation data has reinforced expectations for further monetary tightening in December; if inflation does not improve significantly, the high-interest-rate environment may continue to weigh on tech stock valuations and capital inflows into the cryptocurrency market.
Although major US equity indices staged a temporary rebound this week, internal divergence within the tech sector remains pronounced. The AI supply chain continues to face valuation adjustment pressures, and the tension between heavy capital expenditures and the timeline for earnings realization has increasingly become a market focus. Sustained high yields on the ten-year US Treasury have further escalated discounting pressures on growth assets. Investors are prioritizing cash flow quality, capital efficiency, and the sustainability of earnings growth. The risk of simultaneous economic slowdown and persistent inflation has also led investors to adopt a more cautious approach when allocating to high-risk assets.
Meanwhile, the cryptocurrency market endured another wave of sharp declines. BTC steadily weakened from around $76,000, breaking below $70,000 on November 13, while high-beta assets like ETH came under parallel pressure, triggering mass liquidations of long positions in the derivatives market. This downturn cannot be pinned on a single negative driver: rising inflation expectations and climbing US Treasury yields exert macroeconomic pressure, whereas sustained spot ETF outflows and concentrated deleveraging of positions create internal liquidity shocks in the crypto space, amplifying one another. BTC's failure to resume its uptrend alongside the temporary rally in US equities underscores that the cryptocurrency market continues to face independent capital supply-demand imbalances.
Markets will continue to watch US economic data, Federal Reserve officials' remarks, and shifting rate expectations next week. Should economic growth decelerate and inflation expectations ease, risk assets may experience a rebound opportunity; however, if Treasury yields continue to climb, the deleveraging trend could persist. Short-term attention for BTC centers on price holding above $68,000; a breach would turn focus to downside support at $65,000 and the $62,000–$63,000 range, with initial resistance overhead at $73,000–$75,000. The S&P 500 will require consolidation confirmation in the 7,400–7,600 zone. Broadly, the market remains defensively positioned, and a sustained rally hinges on the combined alignment of declining Treasury yields, strengthening ETF net inflows, and stabilizing derivative leverage metrics.
Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, invitation, or recommendation regarding any investment product.