Bitget UEX Daily Report | Inflation Pressures Rebound; Tech Earnings Under Scrutiny; BTC Nears Institutional Cost Basis

I. Hot News Highlights

1. U.S. Economy | Corporate Expansion Remains Strong, Selling Price Increases Hit Four-Year High

The preliminary flash composite PMI for the U.S. in October edged down from 58.4 to 57.6, remaining in a strong expansion zone; the combined selling price increase for goods and services was the largest since August 2022. Demand growth, supply bottlenecks, and energy costs collectively shape the current operating environment for businesses.

Market Impact: Growth resilience supports corporate revenues, but price pressures will compress the room for monetary policy easing. The key focus this week is whether companies can cover costs through revenue growth and price increases, and realize profits and cash flows in their earnings reports.

2. Energy | Supply Concerns Push Up Oil Prices Last Week, Pull Back at Monday Open

On Friday,Brent crudesettlement prices rose to $116.72/barrel, with supply concerns following strikes on Saudi Arabia continuing to impact the market; this morning, December Brent futures pulled back to $110.32/barrel. Since Friday's settlement and Monday's intraday trading occur at different times, the pullback this morning does not confirm that supply risks have eased.

Market Impact: High oil prices continue to affect the costs of transportation, chemical, and consumer goods companies. The next focus is on actual production and shipping conditions, as well as whether the oil price pullback can sustain, thereby alleviating pressure on corporate profit margins.

3. U.S. Consumption | Confidence Final Reading at 48.0, Current Conditions Clearly Weaken

The University of Michigan's final October consumer sentiment reading stood at 48.0, slightly below September's 48.1; the present conditions index fell from 50.9 to 46.7, while the expectations index rose from 46.3 to 48.8. Consumers' assessments of current conditions and future outlook show divergence.

Market Impact: While corporate activity remains robust, household sentiment is weak. Consequently, sales mix and pricing power are crucial for consumer companies. Future demand should be assessed based on actual consumption, sales volume, and promotional intensity, rather than assuming a broad consumer recovery solely from improved expectations.

II. Market Review

Commodities and Foreign Exchange Performance

Oil prices this morning are below last Friday's settlement level, but energy prices remain elevated; gold is hovering near $4,000, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is approaching 5%. Currently, it is necessary to simultaneously monitor costs, financing conditions, and corporate profitability. A decline in a single asset is insufficient to indicate an improvement in overall financial conditions.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: 80,322.15 USDT, down 0.71% over 24 hours.ETH: 2,336.32 USDT, down 0.95% over 24 hours. The total cryptocurrency market cap is approximately $2.68 trillion, down 4.33% over 24 hours. The total market cap update time is Beijing Time 08:23.

Liquidation distances and cost spreads are calculated based on the simultaneous USD reference prices of BTC $80,240.86 and ETH $2,333.96.

BTC Liquidation Zone: The area above, approximately $81,100–$81,700, represents a pronounced potential short liquidation cluster, about 1.07%–1.82% away from the current price; the area below, approximately $79,300–$79,900, is a potential long liquidation cluster, about 0.42%–1.17% away from the current price. The lower near-end is closer. If prices continue to fall, watch for whether long deleveraging amplifies volatility.

ETH Liquidation Zone: The area above, approximately $2,360–$2,395, represents a pronounced potential short liquidation cluster, about 1.12%–2.62% away from the current price; the area below, approximately $2,295–$2,315, is a potential long liquidation cluster, about 0.81%–1.67% away from the current price. The lower near-end is slightly closer. During pullbacks, monitor long liquidation pressure; during rebounds, observe changes in short positions above.

BTC Institutional Cost: Glassnode reported on October 21 that the estimated average cost of BTC held by corporate treasuries covered is approximately $80,200, with position data current as of October 19. The current coin price is about 0.05% higher than this reference. Strategy held 848,517 BTC as of October 18, with a total average cost including fees of $75,446; the current coin price is approximately 6.36% above this cost. These percentages merely reflect the difference between the coin price and BTC cost basis.

Quick Market Take: BTC has approached the $80,200 treasury cost reference, and the lower $79,300–$79,900 liquidation zone is close to this cost level. If prices continue to fall, monitor both the erosion of unrealized gains against the reference and deleveraging. ETH is similarly closer to its lower liquidation zone. These levels are intended for observing potential volatility and do not constitute firm support.

U.S. Stock Major Index Performance

All three major indexes closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average declining the most, while the Nasdaq's downward momentum softened compared to the previous day. A broad market rally has not yet formed. This week's tech earnings reports will further test the relationship between AI investment, revenue growth, and cash flow.

Magnificent Seven Tech Performance

Among the Magnificent Seven, one rose and six fell, with Microsoft being the only gainer and Alphabet experiencing the largest decline. Microsoft will report earnings after the U.S. market close on October 28. The market's next focus is on whether cloud business growth and AI infrastructure investments can simultaneously convert into profitable realization.

Sector Movement Observations

Oil Services:SLBrose 7.08%, with third-quarter revenue increasing 6% year-over-year. The earnings report provides another basis for evaluating operations independent of oil prices. How oil price increases translate into customer capital expenditures and oil services orders still needs verification through subsequent contracts and cash flow.

Delivery & Platforms: Instacart rose 9.21%, making potential sale reports the focal point. Crypto-related stocks showed divergent performance,Coinbasedown 2.74% and Strategy up 0.14%. Different business models retain varying sensitivities to coin prices, trading activity, and financing conditions.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Stocks

1. SLB | Revenue Growth and Cash Flow Improvement Support Share Price

Event Overview: SLB closed at $53.06, up 7.08%. Third-quarter revenue was $9.45 billion, up 6% year-over-year; adjusted EPS was $0.64, down 7% year-over-year, and free cash flow was $828 million.

Market Interpretation: Revenue growth has not yet translated into year-over-year earnings per share growth, so operational improvement cannot be explained solely by rising oil prices. The quarter's cash generation capability provides another basis for assessing business quality.

Investment Insights: Focus on tracking customer capital expenditures, order execution, and cash collections. Whether subsequent profit margins improve will determine the extent to which revenue growth translates into shareholder returns.

2. Microsoft | Earnings Window to Test AI Investment Returns

Event Overview: Microsoft closed at $524.51, up 0.66%, becoming the only gainer among the Magnificent Seven. The company has confirmed it will release its fiscal year 2027 first-quarter results after the U.S. market closes on October 28.

Market Interpretation: This earnings report has not yet been released. The current observation focuses on the alignment between cloud demand, AI revenue contribution, and capital expenditures. A single-day stock price rise only indicates relatively strong performance and cannot be treated prematurely as a validation of results.

Investment Insights: Monitor Azure growth, AI capacity constraints, and the impact of capital expenditures on free cash flow. A more valuable signal is the sustained revenue and profit generated by new investments, rather than focusing solely on expenditure scale.

3. Instacart | Sale Reports Push Share Price Higher, Transaction Still Undetermined

Event Overview: Instacart closed at $56.44, up 9.21%. Reports indicated the company was exploring a sale and had contacted Uber andDoorDash, with subsequent Bloomberg reporting that Uber has withdrawn from related discussions.

Market Interpretation: The share price is beginning to reflect expectations of a potential control transaction, but no acquisition agreements have been signed as of now. Buyer willingness and regulatory review remain key variables.

Investment Insights: Subsequently monitor official company disclosures, buyer identity, and transaction terms. At this stage, it should be evaluated according to the potential sale process, and the share price rise cannot be taken as proof of a finalized transaction.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

1. HSBC HKD Stablecoin RedCoin Launches on PayMe

On October 23, HSBC launched the HKD stablecoin RedCoin, ticker RCHKD, gradually rolling out wallet functionality via PayMe to over 3.3 million users for peer-to-peer transfers and merchant payments. The bank plans to further integrate tokenized investment products within the year, with related investment functions remaining part of subsequent plans.

2. Circle Gateway Expands to cirBTC and EURC

On October 23, Circle announced that Gateway now additionally supports cirBTC and EURC, extending unified cross-chain balance capabilities to more assets. Next steps will focus on real-world payment and settlement adoption, as well as custody and redemption arrangements by asset issuers.

3. Circle Expands Partner Program

On October 22, Circle announced eight new member benefits and a dedicated community platform for its Alliance Program, continuing to expand its partner ecosystem. Commercial value still needs to be observed through product integration, actual usage, and revenue conversion; member benefits themselves cannot be directly equated to increased trading volume.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Key Event Preview: Tonight will initially focus on regional manufacturing demand and cost signals, followed this week by the Federal Reserve meeting and tech earnings window. Durable goods orders are scheduled for U.S. time October 27 per the official calendar, and should not be mistaken for a tonight's release.

Institutional Viewpoint: BondBloxx Strategist JoAnne Bianco noted on October 23 that sticky inflation continues to pose headwinds for the market. Combined with long-end yields nearing 5%, attention should turn to whether corporate profit growth can offset financing and valuation pressures.

This article is for market information reference only and does not constitute investment advice.