U.S. Stock Market Outlook (November 4): AMD Surges After Hours as Guidance Beats Expectations; Futures Drop on Midterm Election Vote Counting

Written by: Chaowang Research

Chip stock rebounds drove the Nasdaq up 0.83%, and the S&P 500 ended its three-day losing streak, while Apple's weaker gross margin guidance weighed on the Dow closing lower.

In after-hours trading, AMD reported third-quarter revenue of $13.38 billion, with fourth-quarter guidance of approximately $17 billion, both beating expectations; shares surged nearly 9%. Super Micro Computer and Arista Networks also rallied sharply on guidance that exceeded forecasts.

Following the start of midterm election vote counting, markets bet on the Democratic Party taking control of Congress, causing stock futures to turn from gains to losses.

Chip Stock Rebound Ends Three-Day Losing Streak for S&P 500

On Tuesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.36% to close at 7,568.92, ending a three-day losing streak; the Nasdaq gained 0.83% to finish at 25,372.01; and the Dow fell 0.38% to close at 51,786.72.

The Nasdaq 100 Index rose 0.68% to 28,180.26, remaining roughly 10% below recent highs and within a correction range. The Russell 2000 gained 0.23% to 2,812.45. The VIX dropped 1.51% to 20.83.

The index gains were primarily driven by a few large-cap tech stocks. The Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rose 2.01%, the Technology Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLK) gained 1.31%, and Communication Services (XLC) increased 1.18%. Consumer Staples (XLP) fell 2.07%, Materials (XLB) dropped 2.01%, and seven of the eleven sectors closed lower. The equal-weighted S&P 500 ETF (RSP) declined 0.33%.

Among individual stocks, AMD rose 3.65% to $483.90, Broadcom gained 3.07%, Microsoft advanced 2.74%, and Nvidia climbed 2.29%. CoreWeave surged over 5% intraday but has still logged a cumulative decline of approximately 41% over the past month.

AMD Fourth-Quarter Guidance Around $17 Billion, Shares Briefly Surge Nearly 9% After Hours

AMD reported third-quarter earnings in after-hours trading. Revenue reached $13.38 billion, a 45% year-over-year increase, surpassing LSEG's estimate of $13.09 billion; adjusted earnings per share came in at $2.09, beating the forecast of $1.95.

Data center segment revenue hit a record $8.5 billion, surging 97% year-over-year, driven primarily by EPYC server processors and the MI450 series GPUs. Client and gaming revenue totaled $3.7 billion, down 8% year-over-year, with gaming revenue falling 40%.

Fourth-quarter revenue guidance stands at approximately $17 billion (plus or minus 3%), with the midpoint representing a roughly 66% year-over-year increase and a 27% quarter-over-quarter rise, exceeding market expectations of $16.23 billion. CEO Dr. Lisa Su stated on the earnings call that server revenue is expected to double year-over-year by 2027.

AMD shares briefly rose nearly 9% after hours before receding along with stock futures, narrowing the gain to around 4%.

Also in after-hours trading, Super Micro Computer reported preliminary first fiscal quarter revenue of $19.9 billion, above the forecast of $16.26 billion, and raised its full-year 2027 revenue guidance to $72–82 billion, sending its shares higher by over 9% after hours. Arista Networks provided fourth-quarter revenue guidance of $3.9–4.0 billion, surpassing the estimated $3.6 billion, and jumped roughly 12% in extended trading.

Skyworks Solutions saw next-quarter guidance miss estimates, falling nearly 15% after hours; Booking.com revenue fell short of expectations, declining about 2% in extended trading.

Apple Gross Margin Guidance Weighs on the Dow; Shopify and Gartner Plunge

Apple closed down nearly 1.9% at $331.82, serving as the primary drag on the Dow's decline.

Apple reported September-quarter revenue of $114.48 billion and earnings per share of $2.10, both beating estimates. However, the company projected December-quarter gross margins of 45% to 46%, falling short of analyst forecasts ranging from roughly 46.7% to 47.5%. Rising memory chip costs and investments in Siri AI features are cited as primary headwinds. iPad revenue came in at $6.23 billion, below expectations.

Apple expects December-quarter revenue growth of 7% to 10%, with services revenue growth slowing to 8% to 9%. Morgan Stanley lowered its price target from $355 to $350, while JPMorgan reduced its target from $360 to $355.

Shopify fell 8.74%, reporting third-quarter revenue of $3.74 billion, slightly missing forecasts, as subscription gross profit and GMV also fell short of expectations. Gartner dropped 13.19% to $204.22, as third-quarter contract value grew only 2.5% and revenue declined 1.3%.

Coinbase surged nearly 8% intraday, reversing from a cumulative 15% drop over the previous three trading sessions.

Midterm Election Vote Counting Underway; Stock Futures Flip to Red

Voting for the U.S. midterm elections took place on Tuesday. Democrats need a net gain of four seats in the Senate and three in the House to secure control of both chambers. The Associated Press called the first Senate race, declaring Virginia Democratic Sen. Mark Warner re-elected.

As voting concluded across various states, prediction markets heavily favored a Democratic sweep. As of today at 08:48 Beijing Time, the probability of Democratic control of the Senate on Kalshi rose to approximately 90%, with a 97% chance for the House. Media outlets continue tallying results for key races.

Stock futures subsequently turned negative. At the same time, S&P 500 futures fell 0.6%, Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.5%, and Dow futures declined 252 points. Microsoft and Amazon slipped after hours, while the Solar ETF (TAN) continued rising in extended trading.

JPMorgan previously noted that a Democratic sweep of both chambers could weigh on the broader market on Wednesday, particularly pressuring AI stocks; meanwhile, Republicans retaining the Senate or both chambers could spark a short-term rally.

During Asian morning trading, South Korea's KOSPI Index opened up 2.95%. Both the KOSPI and Taiwan Weighted Index fell 3.59% on Tuesday.

Oil Holds Monday's Losses; U.S. Treasury Yields Rebound

WTI crude oil fell 0.38% to close at $96.09 per barrel; Brent crude dropped 1.12% to $103.60 per barrel. Both benchmark grades lost roughly 7% on Monday and showed no signs of rebounding on Tuesday.

U.S. military strikes were reportedly launched against Iran's Qeshm Island, prompting Iran to vow a "powerful" response, which initially pushed oil prices higher overnight. Subsequent speculation that U.S.-Iran negotiations might yield progress quickly dampened the gains.

U.S. Treasury yields rebounded. The 10-year yield rose 5.8 basis points to 4.951%, marking the largest gain since September 28; the 2-year yield climbed 3.1 basis points to 4.612%; and the 30-year yield increased 5.5 basis points to 5.323%. The U.S. Dollar Index gained 0.11% to 101.86.

On the data front, September JOLTS job openings stood at 7.52 million, a 333,000 monthly increase that surpassed the forecast of 7.15 million; quits rose to 3.36 million, the highest level since March 2025; and layoffs fell to 1.64 million. September factory orders rose 1.8% month-over-month, exceeding expectations of 1.3%.

Bitcoin continues to trade above $77,000.

Key Events Today

All times are in Beijing Time.

All Day: Midterm Election Vote Counting. Which party controls both chambers remains the largest variable for U.S. equities today, with vote tallies for some key races potentially lasting several days.

21:15: U.S. October ADP Employment Report. September ADP private sector payrolls added 90,000 jobs.

23:00: U.S. October ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI. September reading was 54.9.

Tonight Pre-Market: Uber, CVS Health, McDonald's, and Datadog will report earnings. According to The Wall Street Journal, CVS plans to spin off its retail pharmacy business, leading to a modest after-hours surge.

Thursday Morning (After U.S. Markets Close): Qualcomm, Arm, and AppLovin will report earnings. Market consensus projects Qualcomm revenue at $10.12 billion with EPS of $2.16; Arm revenue at $1.38 billion with EPS of $0.47.

Friday 21:30: U.S. October Nonfarm Payrolls Report. Forecasts call for an addition of 59,000 jobs, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.2%. September saw a modest 29,000 job gain.