Without a Crypto Bull Market, What Could Push HYPE to $128?

Author: DCo

Compiled by: Saoirse, Foresight News

Hyperliquid is gradually evolving into an all-asset-class trading platform, with one-third of its current volume no longer originating from crypto. We project what HYPE's valuation could look like if this trend continues, crypto volumes return to bull market levels, and Hyperliquid captures a small share of the global index futures, commodity futures, and equity markets.

In October, non-crypto trading accounted for 30% of Hyperliquid's total volume; on October 27, single-day share reached 40%, peaking at 51% in July.

The corresponding global traditional finance market was valued at $740 trillion in 2025, growing at ~6% annually, projected to reach $934 trillion by 2029. A 1% share in this market in 2029 would represent $9.3 trillion in volume, equivalent to 3.3 times Hyperliquid's current total volume.

Base case: By 2029, crypto volume triples from current levels; capturing a 3% share in this expanding global market at a blended fee rate of 0.006%; USDC yield falls back to 3.6%; HIP-4 contributes $100 million in revenue. Total revenue grows from the current $944 million to $4.91 billion by 2029.

Discounted at 20%, based on 890 million HYPE remaining after buybacks, at a 40x revenue multiple, HYPE's target price is $128.

Bull case (5% market share, 40x multiple) corresponds to a unit price of $165; compared to our March report, despite the token base used here being nearly triple, the bull case target price still exceeds the previous $124.

Currently, gaining share in traditional finance outweighs the crypto bull/bear cycle. Using a 25x multiple: tripling crypto volume only lifts HYPE's price by ~$30, whereas increasing market share from 1% to 5% drives a ~$48 increase.

The biggest risk comes from fees. If TradFi business fees drop to CME levels, the base case target price under a 30x multiple falls back to $66.

Moving Beyond the Crypto Bubble

For years, trading venues in the crypto industry have mainly served insiders. Hyperliquid may be the first platform to break this barrier, opening its trading infrastructure to vastly larger external users. We have already seen signs: traders used Hyperliquid to bet on market movements during tensions between the US and Iran and around Tesla Roadster-related events.

This shift in trading behavior means we need to reassess its valuation logic. Even capturing a tiny slice of the global trading market would be substantial compared to Hyperliquid's current scale, but fee revenue from such TradFi volume would be significantly lower.

A year ago, Hyperliquid only supported crypto trading. HIP-3 changed that. Individual stocks, indices, commodities, and forex can now share the same margin account with bitcoin perpetual contracts, and traders are indeed actively trading these assets.

Chart showing Hyperliquid's monthly volume changes from September 2025 to October 2026

The share of non-crypto volume rose from 0% in September 2025 to a peak of 51% in July 2026, later stabilizing around one-third. On October 27, 40% of the platform's $7.2 billion single-day volume came from non-crypto assets. Individual stocks are currently the largest non-crypto asset class, surpassing indices and commodities.

This segment operates independently of bitcoin's price action, which is why we value it separately.

Hyperliquid Has Not Yet Experienced a Full-Scale Bull Market

We often say Hyperliquid hasn't yet gone through a major bull run. Data supports this claim, but a more precise interpretation offers greater reference value.

Binance's monthly volume since 2020

We pulled Binance's public API data dating back to 2019, aggregating its spot, USDT-margined, and coin-margined futures volumes. Binance's historical peak occurred in May 2021 at $4.3 trillion, before Hyperliquid even launched. Since Hyperliquid went live, the market has seen three volume peaks: March 2024, November–December 2024 (~$3.7 trillion each month), and October 2025 ($3.5 trillion).

However, during most peak periods, Hyperliquid's scale was still small. During the heat of 2024, its crypto futures volume only represented 2%–6% of Binance's; it didn't cross the 10% threshold until February 2025, where it has remained since.

Ratio of Hyperliquid's crypto volume to Binance's crypto futures volume

Binance's current crypto volume is only 38% of its December 2024 peak, and spot volume is just 16% of its May 2021 peak. Thus, Hyperliquid's current $781 million annualized trading revenue sits at cycle lows. Binance's peak months see 2.4–3 times higher volume, forming the basis for our base assumption that 'crypto volume will triple to current levels by 2029.' Hyperliquid has not yet experienced a phase maintaining this high volume for a full year.

Entering Mainstream Markets Pressures Fee Revenue

If Hyperliquid aims to grab a few percentage points from global futures and equity markets, its fee pricing must compete with established exchanges—a capability it currently lacks.

Difference in net fee revenue retained by protocol per $1 million notional traded across Hyperliquid crypto perpetuals, HIP-3 growth-mode assets, and CME index futures.

After deducting rebates and discounts, the protocol retains ~0.037% of crypto perpetual volume. Assets under HIP-3 in growth mode retain only 0.0037%. CME's Q3 2026 index business generated revenue equivalent to just 0.0004% of notional volume. This means even discounted TradFi fees at Hyperliquid are roughly 9 times higher than CME's.

Competition is already intense. Binance listed 229 TradFi perpetual contracts this year, generating ~$13.4 billion daily volume, compared to Hyperliquid's $2.3 billion. The growth mode has no expiration date; the team simply added a toggle to adjust fees upward for specific markets.

Our base case assumes a blended non-crypto fee rate of 0.006% starting in 2027. This comprises ~7% of non-crypto volume switching to standard rates (protocol retains 0.037%), with the rest remaining in growth mode. This rate remains 15 times that of CME and is the most fragile assumption in the model. We demonstrate the valuation impact if fees drop to CME levels at the end of this section.

Target: $4 Billion Annual Revenue

We project four revenue streams and sum them, with 99% allocated to the Assistance Fund to buy back and burn HYPE, reducing circulating supply.

Crypto trading revenue = Crypto volume × Crypto fees. We assume volume grows from $1.98 trillion annually to triple by 2029 ($5.9 trillion), maintaining the current 0.037% fee rate.

Non-crypto trading revenue = Global market share captured by Hyperliquid × Non-crypto fees, with a blended rate of 0.006% starting in 2027. This global market reached $740 trillion in 2025. Assuming a 6% annual growth rate (aligning with global equity markets, which grew from $114 trillion in 2015 to $204 trillion in 2025), the market size hits $934 trillion by 2029.

Per AQAv2 rules, 90% of USDC reserve yields on the Hyperliquid platform flow into the Assistance Fund. The first distribution yielded $14.58 million over 30 days, annualizing to $177 million against a $5.1 billion reserve and 3.9% yield. We assume yields fall to 3.6% by 2029, aligning with the Fed's median forecast. Reserve size grows alongside crypto volume and new deposits; we assume new traders deposit 0.05% of their annual volume.

HIP-4 prediction markets launched in May. We estimate this segment generates $100 million in revenue by 2029.

Hyperliquid revenue projection under base case

Total revenue grows 5.2x to $4.91 billion. Of the $3.97 billion incremental revenue, nearly two-thirds come from outside crypto trading: $1.65 billion from non-crypto fees, $756 million from USDC interest, and $100 million from HIP-4.

What Expectations Are Already Priced In?

We discount 2029 revenues at a 20% rate (consistent with prior reports). The $4.91 billion in 2029 equates to a present value of $2.84 billion. We then apply various revenue multiples and divide by the remaining HYPE tokens in 2029. Calculation methodology: Total supply of 998.8 million, minus 48.3 million held by the Assistance Fund, minus tokens bought back and burned using 99% of revenue from 2027–2029. Buyback prices gradually rise from the current $77 to the 2029 target price for each scenario; higher multiples result in fewer burned tokens: ~87 million at 25x, 76 million at 30x, and 61 million at 40x.

HYPE target price under varying revenue multiples and market shares, assuming crypto volume triples

Example calculation: 3% market share, 40x multiple. In 2029: Crypto revenue $2.2B ($5.94T × 0.037%), Non-crypto revenue $1.68B (3% of $934T market = $28T × 0.006%), USDC interest $935M ($28.9B reserve × 3.6% × 90%), HIP-4 contribution $100M. Total $4.91B. Discounted at 20% over three years (divided by 1.2³ = 1.728), PV is $2.84B. A 40x multiple implies a FDV of $113.8B. At this multiple, ~61M HYPE are bought back by 2029, leaving 890M outstanding, yielding a unit price of $128.

HYPE pricing matrix: Assuming crypto volume reaches 3x current levels, at a 40x revenue multiple, capturing just 0.5% global market share supports an $81 price. The green area represents values above the Oct 27 closing price.

Key assumption to remember: the vast majority of non-crypto volume stays in growth mode throughout.

Viewing it differently: the current $77 price implies: 0.5% share requires a 38x multiple; 3% needs 23x; 5% needs 18x; 10% needs ~10x. CME trades at 25x P/E, ICE at 23x. This suggests current market pricing roughly aligns with 2%–3% market share at traditional exchange valuations, or a smaller share plus a growth premium.

Under a 25x revenue multiple, comparing HYPE prices across different global market shares and crypto volume multipliers shows that tripling crypto volume and increasing market share both drive price appreciation.

Market share weight now outweighs the crypto cycle. At a 25x multiple, tripling crypto volume lifts HYPE's price by ~$30; increasing share from 1% to 5% lifts it by ~$48. Even if crypto volume flatlines, supporting a $77 price at a 25x multiple still requires capturing a 5% market share.

The Market Logic Has Shifted, So Must the Valuation Framework

When HYPE traded at $37 in March, we ran a four-scenario valuation using a 20x 2028 revenue multiple: Bear case $60 (0.01% of a $1.74T daily market), Base case $72 (0.10%), Bull case $124 (0.50%), Extreme Bull $190 (1.00%), corresponding to 2028 revenue between $1.4B–$4.6B. Seven months later, HIP-3 annual volume hit $870 billion, surpassing the then-base case 0.10% benchmark of $640 billion, reaching roughly a quarter toward the bull target. Below is a data comparison between the March and current models.

Comparison of HYPE valuation across four scenarios in March vs. now: Despite total supply nearing triple, the bull case target price is raised from $124 to $165.

Had we stuck to the early version and valued only circulating tokens, the base case unit price would be ~$280 instead of $98. Another core parameter adjusted downward is fees: March assumed HIP-3 gave the protocol a 0.05% cut (pre-growth mode rate), while this model uses 0.006%. The bear case valuation drops below March's because we now use fully diluted supply (FDV) rather than just market cap on circulating supply.

Valuation Drivers & Variables

Bullish Factors

Valuing against actual circulating supply instead of FDV roughly doubles the unit price. FDV includes unlocked tokens that may never enter circulation.

Reducing the discount rate from 20% to 15% lifts the base case valuation from $98 to $111 at a 30x multiple.

Hyperliquid currently retains 0.18% of annual volume as USDC margin, versus CME's 0.01%. If TradFi traders keep funds on-platform similarly to crypto traders, USDC interest income would significantly exceed our assumptions.

Every $1 in options premiums generates $10–20 in perpetual hedging volume. Native options haven't launched on HyperCore yet, so this incremental stream is excluded from the model.

Our supply assumption: All scheduled tokens vest by 2029. Current circulating: 302M. Core contributors hold: 238M. Future unvested per Hyperliquid: 410M. Minus buybacks/burns (~76M at 30x). If only half of unvested tokens circulate by 2029, supply reaches ~683M, raising the base price to $125 at a 30x multiple. If none circulate, supply is 493M, pushing the price to $173.

Projected HYPE price in 2029 under a 30x revenue multiple across varying circulating unlocks. Lower circulation drives higher valuation; if only half of unvested tokens enter the market, the base price rises from $98 to $125.

Bearish Risk Factors

If non-crypto business fees drop to CME's 0.0004%, base case valuation falls from $98 to $66 at a 30x multiple; if all assets remain in growth mode, it's $85. Crypto perpetual fees also face competition: Lighter previously offered zero fees, and Binance's TradFi perpetual volume is 6x Hyperliquid's, making competition fierce.

Base case assumes 2029 crypto volume and fee revenue average 3x current levels, implying $98 at a 30x multiple. If only 1.5x is achieved, base price drops to $71; if volume flatlines, it falls to $62.

USDC interest fuels the $935 million in 2029 revenue, making US interest rates critical. Each 100 bps rate cut reduces this income by over 25%; at a 2.6% rate, the base price stands at $92.

All projections in this article are based on the interactive HYPE valuation model, where all parameters can be adjusted by the user.