Bloomberg Poll: 72% of Respondents Bullish on Bitcoin Under Republican Control of Congress, 29% Expect It to Break $100,000 by Year-End

On Nov. 2, according to Bloomberg, Bloomberg News's Markets Pulse surveyed 301 Bloomberg Terminal clients and Bloomberg.com subscribers (including traders, retail investors, portfolio managers, etc.) from Oct. 2 to 17 to assess the potential impact of the U.S. midterm election results on financial markets. The survey was voluntary, and the results are unweighted.

Regarding Bitcoin, using a baseline of approximately $83,600 at the end of September, 72% of respondents project price appreciation by year-end if Republicans control Congress, with 29% forecasting a move above $100,000; under Democratic control, 71% anticipate a decline, including 16% projecting a drop below $60,000. With a prior cryptocurrency regulatory bill failing to pass the Senate, related regulatory outlooks have become a focal point for the market.

For the S&P 500, 65% of respondents expect U.S. equity gains to accelerate or sustain their current pace over the next 12 months if Republicans control Congress (averaging about 1.3% monthly year-to-date); this proportion falls to 37% under Democratic control and 44% under divided government. Regarding bonds, Democratic congressional control is seen as more favorable, with 53% of respondents expecting U.S. Treasury yields to decline under that scenario, compared to 36% under divided government and 26% under Republican control.

Additionally, 62% of respondents believe that stricter artificial intelligence regulations will drag down U.S. equities, though 55% indicated they would not seriously consider reducing U.S. equity exposure under any congressional control scenario.