Wintermute: BTC down for a third consecutive week; FOMC and PCE to determine short-term direction

on October 27, according to Wintermute's weekly market report, Bitcoin fell 2.43% last week, closing lower for the third consecutive week, breaking below $82,500 and retesting $80,000, trading at approximately $80,500; ETH dropped 3.40%, trading at around $2,330. The US spot Bitcoin ETF saw a net outflow of $636 million on Thursday, marking the largest single-day outflow since June, while the Nasdaq declined 2.6% on the same day. On the macro front, after Houthi forces attacked Saudi oil facilities, Brent crude rose 5.66% to $116.72, with oil prices replacing AI financing as the primary market concern.

Wintermute noted that as of October 18, markets price in an ~86% chance of the Fed holding rates steady on Wednesday, with expectations for a December hike, making the December guidance the key risk. Technically, BTC must reclaim $82,000–$82,500; if $80,000 gives way, the next support sits at $76,000, with a breakdown potentially targeting the low $70,000s. The firm stated it is not bearish at present but will remain cautious ahead of the FOMC decision and until BTC reclaims $82,500. Key catalysts include the FOMC meeting on October 28, Q3 GDP and September PCE data on October 29, and monthly options expiry on October 30.