Derive: Probability of Bitcoin falling below $70,000 by Christmas rises to 31%

on November 11, according to The Block, Derive options pricing indicates the probability of Bitcoin closing below $70,000 by Christmas has risen from 15% last week to 31%, while the probability of closing above $80,000 over the same period has dropped from 53% to 26%.

Derive founder and CEO Nick Forster stated that traders are adopting a defensive posture, with Bitcoin option trading volume on the platform reaching $418 million last week, an increase of 37%; put options accounted for 55% of traded premiums, up from 36% the previous week.

Vetle Lunde, Research Director at K33, noted that Bitcoin perpetual futures open interest stood at approximately 353,000 BTC on Tuesday, up 12% over the past 30 days, while Bitcoin's price declined 10% during the same period. He believes that a price breakdown could trigger widespread long liquidations, while a rebound could spark short covering, thereby amplifying price volatility.