Analysis: Bitcoin breaks the historical trend pattern ahead of the past three US midterm elections, with its current price trading 5.2% above the 200-day moving average.

On Nov. 3, according to CoinDesk, Bitcoin's market performance ahead of the 2026 US midterm elections has broken the trend patterns observed in the previous three elections. As of Nov. 3, Bitcoin was trading at approximately $76,990, roughly 5.2% above the 200-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) of $73,169, indicating that its long-term trend remains above the moving average.

In contrast, during the US midterm elections in 2014, 2018, and 2022, Bitcoin prices traded approximately 35%, 9%, and 22% below their respective 200-day moving averages, all occurring within bear markets. The report noted that although Bitcoin surpassed $126,000 in October 2025, this bear market correction has been relatively mild and concentrated mainly in January and February of this year.

Martin Lee, Head of Research at DWF Labs, stated that historical data suggests Bitcoin typically experiences choppy or slightly subdued performance in the first few months following midterm elections, but records gains over the following 12 months. Nevertheless, short-term price action may still be influenced by election outcomes, ETF net flows, US labor market data, and geopolitical risks.

Furthermore, the Bitcoin 30-day implied volatility index, BVIV, has broken out from a descending triangle pattern, reflecting rising market expectations for near-term volatility.