Morgan Stanley: Top Four Manufacturers' AI Capital Expenditures to Rise Over 50%, Credit Quality Becomes the Financing Watershed

TechFlow reports that, according to Chaoxiang Research, a Morgan Stanley research report dated October 26, 2026 indicates that the capital expenditures of the four hyperscale vendors—Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft—are expected to grow by over 50% in 2027, accounting for more than 75% of AI-related capital expenditure; the four companies have an average credit rating of approximately AA and an average market capitalization exceeding $3 trillion; lower-rated vendors and new cloud providers face restricted access to capital markets and significant declines in bond prices.

Morgan Stanley assesses that higher-rated vendors will experience price adjustments first, with issuance volumes remaining stable; lower-rated vendors will rely more heavily on secured asset-backed financing, necessitating credit enhancement provided by higher-rated semiconductor companies through contractual commitments or backstop support. Credit quality, collateral, and financing structure have become the watershed in AI financing. Portfolio allocation should focus on bonds from higher-rated vendors and secured financing from lower-rated issuers.