Darkfost: Short-term holder SOPR drops below 1, average profit wiped out

on November 11, CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost stated that the Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) for Bitcoin short-term holders (STH) has dropped to 0.98, remaining in negative territory since October 30, indicating that this cohort is starting to realize losses when selling their Bitcoin.

This metric measures the profit or loss realized when a UTXO is spent: each UTXO carries its own cost basis; when coins are moved, the old UTXO is destroyed and a new UTXO is generated at a new realized price, with SOPR calculating the difference between the two. This reading only includes short-term holders; their monthly average had previously peaked at 1.013 but has now fallen back to the neutral threshold of 1, wiping out average profits.

Darkfost noted that recent data suggests the market is leaning toward a capitulation phase; in multi-year bull markets, a negative SOPR typically presents a strong buying opportunity, yet the monthly average has not reflected this, indicating that capitulation could persist for several more days before hitting an extreme low.