QCP: BTC Falls Below $80,000, This Week’s Tech Earnings and Fed Decision May Determine the Direction

According to TechFlow, on October 26, a QCP Capital market analysis reported that BTC broke below $80,000 over the weekend and is currently sitting at the lower boundary of its recent trading range. Escalating tensions in the Middle East and ETF outflows later in the week triggered leveraged long liquidations. QCP identifies the key variables for this week as the FOMC meetings on October 27-28 and big tech earnings: Microsoft and Alphabet are scheduled to report on October 28, while Amazon will follow on October 29. Last week, Meta declined 7% after raising its capital expenditure guidance, and the Nasdaq also experienced its worst single-day performance since June. The CME FedWatch tool indicates a 9% probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike in October and roughly an 84% probability for December. With no dot plot released this time, the market will focus on the press conference with the Federal Reserve Chair. The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield remains around 4.96%.

Technically, BTC support is set at $78,000, with resistance at $86,000 and another zone between $88,000 and $90,000 above. Data from Glassnode shows that ETF holders and corporate treasuries have a cost basis ranging from $80,000 to $81,500. ETH support sits at $2,150, with resistance at $2,500. The ETH/BTC pair has dipped to approximately 0.029, and ETH ETFs have logged four consecutive weeks of net outflows, totaling $220.7 million. QCP's baseline expectation is that the Fed will hold rates steady, keeping BTC consolidated between $78,000 and $86,000.