Bitget UEX Daily | Anthropic Races Toward IPO; Meta Raises Funds to Expand AI; BTC Hovers Around Cost Line

I. Key News Highlights

1. AI Industry | Anthropic publicly files IPO application

Anthropic publicly filed Form S-1 with the U.S. SEC on October 26, planning to list on NASDAQ under the ticker "ANT". The number of shares and price range have not yet been determined. The filing has not yet become effective; submitting documents does not mean the IPO is complete.

Market Impact: The listing process provides the market with more information to assess the revenue, losses, and capital requirements of AI application companies. Next, we will monitor updates to the offering documents and the final pricing to determine how application growth supports upstream compute investments.

2. U.S. Manufacturing | Order growth slows, cost pressures remain high

The Dallas Fed's October Manufacturing Production Index fell from 29.5 to 15.8, and the New Orders Index dropped from 30.7 to 9.3; however, the Overall Business Activity Index rose from 9.8 to 13.4. The Raw Material Price Index climbed to 55.3, as businesses continue to face elevated cost pressures.

Market Impact: The survey indicates that manufacturing continues to expand, but order growth has significantly slowed. Subsequent monitoring will focus on whether companies can maintain delivery volumes and profit margins, supplemented by tonight's durable goods orders data to verify national investment demand.

3. Macro Window | Fed Meeting Begins, Dense Data Release Tonight

The Federal Reserve held its interest rate meeting on U.S. time October 27–28, with no decision announced today. Tonight features a concentrated release of U.S. durable goods orders, consumer confidence, new home sales, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey.

Market Impact: The market will simultaneously assess investment demand, consumer willingness to spend, and price pressures. With earnings and macroeconomic data arriving in succession, changes in growth and rate expectations may amplify each other, requiring close attention to volatility before and after events.

II. Market Review

Commodities and Foreign Exchange Performance

Oil prices retreated from last week's highs, while gold reclaimed the $4,000 level, though long-end U.S. Treasury yields remain near 5%. Corporate costs, USD trends, and financing conditions remain key background factors for assessing profitability and valuations this week.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: $80,069.53 USDT, down 0.16% over 24 hours. ETH: $2,321.09 USDT, down 0.42% over 24 hours. Total crypto market cap is approximately $2.70 trillion, down 1.57% in the last 24 hours. Market cap update timestamp: 09:17 Beijing Time.

Liquidation distances and cost differentials are calculated based on contemporaneous USD reference prices: BTC $79,968.56, ETH $2,318.16.

BTC Liquidation Zones: Above, approximately $80,600–$81,300 represents a notable potential short liquidation cluster, roughly 0.79%–1.66% away from the current price; below, approximately $78,700–$79,400 marks a potential long liquidation cluster, roughly 0.71%–1.59% away. Distances to nearest levels above and below are comparable, with slightly shorter distance below. Monitor leverage position changes during movements in either direction.

ETH Liquidation Zones: Above, approximately $2,340–$2,365 represents a notable potential short liquidation cluster, roughly 0.94%–2.02% away from the current price; below, approximately $2,275–$2,295 marks a potential long liquidation cluster, roughly 1.00%–1.86% away. Distances to nearest levels above and below are comparable, with slightly shorter distance above. Watch for potential short liquidations during rebounds, and observe long deleveraging during pullbacks.

BTC Institutional Cost: Glassnode reported on October 21 that the estimated average cost of BTC held by covered treasuries is approximately $80,200, with position data as of October 19. The current price is roughly 0.29% below this reference. Strategy disclosed on October 26 that it holds 848,517 BTC as of October 25, with a total average cost including fees of $75,446, making the current price approximately 5.99% above this cost; these percentages solely reflect price differences relative to BTC acquisition costs.

Key Takeaway: BTC remains trading near the $80,200 treasury cost reference, with the lower liquidation zone ($78,700–$79,400) close to this level. If it continues to fall, monitor both widening unrealized losses against the reference and leverage unwinding. The proximity of upper and lower liquidation zones for both assets offers no clear directional signal and does not constitute definitive support or resistance.

Major U.S. Stock Index Performance

All three major indices rebounded, led by the Nasdaq, with sentiment toward tech stocks showing partial recovery. Future validation will require examining revenue, profit, and cash flow in earnings reports to confirm whether the rebound is supported by sustainable fundamentals.

Tech Magnificent Seven Performance

Four of the Magnificent Seven advanced while three declined, with Tesla leading gains and Meta recording the largest drop. As the AI sector recovers, the market continues to separately evaluate chip demand, platform profitability, and the cost of capital raising.

Sector Movement Observations

Chips & Design Tools: NVIDIA rose 2.39%, NXP gained 4.64%, and Cadence increased 1.79%. Cadence released earnings after market close; its results cannot fully explain the entire gain posted during regular trading hours.

Crypto-Related Equities: Coinbase fell 2.95%, Strategy dropped 4.24%, and Circle declined 7.07%, diverging from the tech rebound. Token price action, trading activity, and corporate treasury capital allocations still require separate tracking.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key U.S. Equity Stocks

1. Meta | Massive Financing Highlights AI Capital Demands

Event Overview: Meta closed at $630.56, down 1.88%. The company initiated an approximately $35 billion underwritten issuance, comprising roughly $22.5 billion in common stock and $12.5 billion in depositary shares representing mandatory convertible preferred stock; it also plans to establish an At-The-Market (ATM) program capped at $60 billion, expected to commence no earlier than Q1 2027.

Market Interpretation: Issuances and future plans must be distinguished; the maximum $95 billion cannot be mischaracterized as already settled. This financing broadens funding sources while prompting markets to closely watch potential dilution and ROI on AI investments.

Investment Implications: Track final pricing, conversion terms, and settlement conditions, alongside contributions to operating cash flows from new investments. The focal point should be the long-term EPS generated by capital deployment, rather than viewing financing scale in isolation.

2. Tesla | Rating Upgrade Drives Expectation Repair

Event Overview: Tesla closed at $391.62, up 5.21%. Barclays upgraded its rating from "Hold" to "Overweight" and raised its target price from $370 to $450.

Market Interpretation: Analysts hold a more positive outlook on automotive, energy, and autonomous driving business prospects, incorporating potential SpaceX portfolio synergies into the discussion. Such synergies remain speculative and should not be treated as announced transactions.

Investment Implications: Subsequent monitoring will focus on auto sales volumes, margins, energy storage deliveries, and Robotaxi operational progress. Sustained operating data will test the growth assumptions underlying the rating upgrade.

3. Cadence | Post-Market Guidance Increase Signals Continued Design Demand

Event Overview: Cadence closed regular trading at $322.17, up 1.79%; following market close, it reported Q3 revenue of $1.633 billion, a year-over-year increase of approximately 22%, with non-GAAP EPS of $2.11 and a backlog reaching $8.2 billion.

Market Interpretation: The company forecasts full-year revenue of $6.387–$6.417 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $8.37–$8.43, reflecting confidence in sustained demand. Backlog must still be recognized as revenue upon contract execution.

Investment Implications: Focus on recurring revenue, design tool adoption, and margin trends. Post-market earnings and next-day price reactions should be analyzed separately; do not conflate pre-market expectations with actual earnings delivery.

IV. Market & Project Developments

1. Strategy Suspends Weekly BTC Buys, Repurchases STRC

Strategy disclosed no BTC purchases or sales between October 19–25, nor were any shares sold via ATM programs; concurrently, $204.9 million in cash was used to repurchase 2,068,459 shares of STRC preferred stock. The company allocated funds for corporate treasury management, and this repurchase does not constitute spot BTC buying.

2. Bitmine Updates ETH Treasury & Repurchase Status

Bitmine disclosed on October 26 that it held 6,051,933 ETH as of 14:00 ET on October 25, noting an addition of 10,452 ETH over the past week. Concurrently, the company repurchased approximately 2.04 million common shares. Asset accumulation and equity buybacks represent two independent capital allocation initiatives.

3. Glassnode Flags Divergence Between Spot Demand and Leverage

Glassnode issued its Week 44 market report on October 26, highlighting that after BTC's rally and subsequent pullback, spot buying momentum weakened, while futures leverage and long funding rates remained in elevated ranges. The report reflects market structure through last week; subsequent focus will be on whether spot demand recovers and if leverage declines amid volatility.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Key Events Preview: Tonight's focus centers on core capital goods orders, residential housing demand, and consumer confidence to gauge the breadth of economic growth. The Fed's policy decision will be announced post-meeting; avoid implying that policy implementation has already occurred based solely on the meeting kickoff.

Institutional Viewpoint: JP Powers, CIO of RWA Wealth Partners, stated on October 26 that Anthropic's filing has pushed market sentiment toward optimism, though actual reception upon official listing requires observation. He simultaneously cautioned that if dense events send conflicting signals, it could trigger volatile swings.

This article is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.