High Interest Rates Reshape Global Asset Allocation Logic: HTX Chief Analyst Cloud Analyzes the Investment Value of US Treasuries, Gold, and BTC
Author: Huobi HTX
As global interest rate conditions change, the investment logic for traditional and crypto assets is undergoing another round of adjustment. Facing the coupon yields of US Treasuries, the safe-haven attributes of gold, and the growth potential of Bitcoin, how should investors make their choices?
On November 12, Huobi Masterclass, themed "Global Asset Repricing: New Wealth Logic in the High-Interest-Rate Era," invited Cloud, Chief Analyst at Huobi HTX, to conduct an in-depth analysis covering the global macro environment, US Treasury yields, gold pricing mechanisms, and the institutionalization trend of BTC. Through four macroeconomic scenarios, the session explored the allocation value and risk boundaries of different assets.
Cloud pointed out that high interest rates are redefining the comparative benchmarks for global assets. "There are no all-purpose assets, only different roles and responsibilities." In the current market environment, investors need to shift from expecting returns from single assets to an investment framework that prioritizes risk-return ratios and portfolio allocation.
High Interest Rates Reshape Asset Pricing: Risk Assets Must Address New Questions
Cloud began by examining Federal Reserve monetary policy and the US fiscal environment to analyze the changes currently facing the global asset pricing system.
In September 2026, the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 25 basis points, moving the federal funds target range up to 3.75%–4.00%. Meanwhile, factors such as inflation resilience, fiscal deficits, and Treasury supply continue to influence market expectations regarding future interest rate paths.
Cloud believes that the persistence of a high-interest-rate environment not only means rising cost of capital but also implies that risk assets face higher thresholds for return comparison. When investors can obtain relatively stable coupon yields through tools like short-term US Treasuries, holding non-cash-flow-generating assets like gold and BTC requires even more compelling rationales for risk compensation.
This shift is reshaping the appeal of different assets. For high-volatility assets like BTC, long-term growth narratives and scarcity remain important, but macro liquidity, market risk appetite, and institutional capital flows are becoming key variables influencing price performance.
US Treasuries, Gold, and BTC: Three Assets, Three Pricing Logics
For these three currently most-watched asset classes, Cloud offered an intuitive analogy: "US Treasuries are wages, gold is insurance, and BTC is an option."
First, the core value of US Treasuries lies in coupon yields and cash flow certainty. In a high-interest environment, short-term Treasuries provide a relatively stable source of returns, making them suitable as defensive allocation tools. While long-term Treasuries also offer coupon yields, their prices are more sensitive to interest rate changes, meaning investors must also bear duration risk and price volatility.
Second, the value of gold does not come from generating cash flows but from hedging credit risk and diversifying assets. In recent years, purchases by global central banks, adjustments in reserve allocations, and geopolitical uncertainties have provided long-term demand support for gold.
However, Cloud cautions that gold cannot sustain upward trends under every market condition. Factors such as rising real interest rates and a stronger US dollar may still suppress gold prices. While central bank buying helps provide long-term support, it does not guarantee short-term price appreciation. Therefore, gold is better suited as a risk-hedging tool within a portfolio rather than a vehicle solely for pursuing high yields.
Regarding BTC, Cloud focused on the dual impact of institutionalization. As spot ETFs, institutional custody, and investment product frameworks gradually mature, BTC's ties to traditional financial markets are deepening. On one hand, institutionalization expands BTC's potential investor base; on the other, it makes the asset more susceptible to macro liquidity shifts, equity market volatility, and changes in institutional capital allocation.
Cloud noted that while BTC possesses scarcity and long-term growth potential, scarcity does not equate to downside resilience. The label "digital gold" does not mean BTC can serve as a safe haven at all times. Particularly in environments where risk appetite declines and capital continuously flows out, BTC may still exhibit strong characteristics of a high-beta risk asset.
Under Four Macro Scenarios, Which Is More Attractive?
During the live stream, Cloud further constructed four macroeconomic scenarios—soft landing, stagflation, recession, and recurring inflation—to conduct a cross-comparison of US Treasuries, gold, and BTC.
In a soft landing scenario, if inflation gradually recedes and economic growth maintains resilience, moderate interest rate declines could create opportunities for long-term Treasuries to see price recovery, while also benefiting assets like gold and BTC.
In a stagflation scenario, where slowing economic growth coexists with persistent inflation, gold's functions in credit hedging and asset diversification may become more prominent, whereas long-term bonds and highly valued risk assets face certain pressures.
In a recession scenario, if economic slowdown prompts monetary policy to ease, long-term US Treasuries could gain capital appreciation due to falling yields, and gold may also benefit from safe-haven demand. BTC, however, will require continued monitoring of shifts in market risk appetite and liquidity conditions.
In a scenario of recurring inflation accompanied by renewed monetary tightening, the relative defensive value of short-term US Treasuries may become more apparent, while long-term bonds, gold, and BTC could all face varying degrees of valuation pressure.
Cloud emphasized that macroeconomic scenarios are not single-point market forecasts, but analytical tools that help investors identify risks and test portfolio resilience.
From Pursuing Returns to Managing Risk: Patience Is Even More Crucial in the High-Interest-Rate Era
At the portfolio allocation level, Cloud believes investors should not simply view US Treasuries, gold, and BTC as three interchangeable options. Instead, they should clarify the role of each asset within a portfolio based on their own risk tolerance, investment horizon, and capital needs. Among them, US Treasuries can serve as a relatively stable foundational position, gold can be used for risk diversification and credit hedging, and BTC can act as an offensive allocation characterized by higher volatility and potential return elasticity.
Regarding BTC's subsequent trajectory, Cloud advised focusing closely on shifts in macro monetary policy, market risk appetite, and institutional capital flows, rather than relying solely on price pullback magnitudes or halving cycles to gauge market direction. He concluded the live stream by emphasizing: "In the high-interest-rate era, what costs the most is actually not yield, but patience."
When relatively stable assets can also deliver attractive returns, every instance of investors taking on additional risk requires a reassessment of whether the potential gains adequately cover the corresponding uncertainties.
From the coupon logic of US Treasuries to the credit hedging of gold, and onward to the institutionalization and risk asset characteristics of BTC, this session of Huobi Masterclass not only demonstrated the shifting logic of global asset pricing but also provided investors with a more multidimensional macroeconomic analytical framework.
As Huobi HTX's long-running investor education series, "Masterclass" continues to invite industry experts, researchers, and seasoned professionals to share insights on global macroeconomics, digital assets, blockchain technology, and industry development trends, helping users enhance market awareness, risk consciousness, and independent judgment capabilities.
Note: The above market views were shared by the guest during the live stream and do not constitute any investment advice.