HTX DeepThink: AI Investment Returns Reassessed, BTC Safe-Haven Status Remains Unproven Amid Tech Stock Sell-Off
on November 6, Chloe, columnist for HTX DeepThink and researcher at HTX Research, analyzed that the sharp fluctuations in global risk assets this week were primarily driven by the market's reassessment of investment return cycles within the AI industry chain. The Democratic Party secured majority seats in both the Senate and the House of Representatives in the midterm elections. Initially, the market interpreted this as the fading of political uncertainty, leading to a brief rebound in US stocks and crypto assets. However, investors quickly refocused on the high-interest-rate environment and the ability of companies to realize earnings, causing a rapid reversal in risk appetite.
On November 5, the S&P 500 index closed at 7,353.73 points, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell approximately 3.44% in a single day. The VIX rose to 28.18, with clear selling pressure observed in the Nasdaq and large-cap tech stocks. As major technology companies continue to expand data center and computing power expenditures, the contradiction between free cash flow pressure and revenue realization speed has gradually become apparent. Coupled with the US 10-year Treasury yield remaining at a high level near 5%, the valuation room for growth stocks has further narrowed. Capital focus is now shifting toward earnings quality and capital efficiency.
The crypto market came under pressure simultaneously. BTC briefly dipped to around $76,000 earlier in the week before rebounding past $80,000 following the election results, but fell back to approximately $75,700 on November 5. ETH dropped to around $2,250, and 24-hour derivatives liquidations briefly exceeded $1 billion. BTC spot ETFs continued to experience periodic outflows, recording a net outflow of approximately $399 million on a single day on November 3. Institutional incremental funds were insufficient to absorb the selling pressure from deleveraging and position reductions. The correlation between BTC and the US tech stock sector has strengthened again, failing to demonstrate independent safe-haven characteristics during the equity market decline.
Next week, the release of US CPI on November 10 will serve as a key catalyst. If inflation comes in below expectations and Treasury yields fall, tech stocks and crypto assets could see an oversold rebound. Conversely, if inflation remains sticky, overvalued sectors may continue to face pressure. In the short term, the S&P 500 is expected to oscillate in the 7,200–7,600 point range, while BTC should be closely watched around the $75,000 support and $80,000–$82,000 resistance levels. The overall assessment remains cautiously neutral. Whether ETF inflows can resume and whether tech stocks can stabilize will determine if the market can rebuild sustained risk appetite.
Note: The content of this article does not constitute investment advice, nor does it constitute an offer, solicitation, or recommendation of any investment product.