Bitget UEX Daily | Bitcoin falls below $80,000; tech stock pullback drags Nasdaq; US growth and inflation remain strong

I. Featured News

US Economy | Q3 GDP Growth Accelerates, Resilience Continues

The US preliminary real GDP for Q3 grew at an annualized rate of 3.4% quarter-over-quarter, higher than Q2's 2.2%. Support came from growth in investment, consumption, and government spending, partially offset by a decline in exports.

Market Impact: The economy still has expansionary momentum, supporting corporate demand expectations; however, strong growth also reduces the need for policy to quickly pivot to easing. Future observations should focus on the growth structure and corporate profit realization; GDP growth rates should not be directly equated with prosperity across all industries.

Inflation | Core PCE YoY Rises to 3.1% in September

The US PCE price index rose 0.5% month-over-month and 3.6% year-over-year in September; core PCE (excluding food and energy) rose 0.3% MoM and 3.1% YoY. Real consumer spending increased by less than 0.1% MoM.

Market Impact: Nominal spending and price pressures remain strong, while real consumption gains are relatively limited. Growth and inflation data together indicate that markets still face constraints from higher interest rates, and consumer-facing companies must distinguish between price and volume contributions in sales growth.

ECB | Rates Held Steady, Energy Shock Remains a Policy Constraint

The ECB maintained three key interest rates unchanged on October 29, keeping the deposit facility rate at 2.50%. The central bank emphasized the impact of the energy shock on inflation and growth, and continued its data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting decision-making approach.

Market Impact: Europe similarly faces an environment where price pressures and growth risks coexist. For multinationals, financing costs, energy costs, and regional demand must be evaluated together; a pause in rate adjustments should not lead to the assumption that an easing cycle has already begun.

II. Market Review

Commodities & Forex Performance

US Treasury yields have fallen below 5%, while tech stocks remain under significant pressure, indicating that corporate earnings and capital expenditure returns are also key factors in this round of pricing. Oil prices remain elevated, and the impact of energy costs on inflation and profit margins still needs tracking; commodity data uses intraday snapshots, and settlement prices are not mixed to calculate gains and losses.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC: ~$77,184.70 USDT, down 4.68% over 24 hours.

ETH: ~$2,219.28 USDT, down 5.47% over 24 hours.

Total Crypto Market Cap: ~$2.61 trillion, down 7.13% over 24 hours; snapshot updated at 09:09 Beijing Time.

BTC | Liquidation Zone Analysis

The more prominent short potential liquidation cluster above is approximately $79,200–$79,900, about 2.77%–3.68% from the current price; the long potential liquidation cluster below is approximately $76,100–$76,800, about 0.34%–1.25% away. Currently closer to the lower zone, if the price continues to drop, attention should be paid to volatility caused by long leverage unwinding.

ETH | Liquidation Zone Analysis

The more prominent short potential liquidation cluster above is approximately $2,275–$2,295, about 2.67%–3.58% away; the long potential liquidation cluster below is approximately $2,160–$2,195, about 0.94%–2.52% away. The near-term lower zone is closer; for short-term trading, first observe support and leverage pressure around this area.

Institutional Cost Basis | BTC

The estimated blended cost basis for US spot BTC ETFs released by Glassnode on October 28 is approximately $81,500, currently about 5.45% below the current price. This represents the unleveraged difference between the coin price and the aggregate holder cost basis, and does not reflect the actual returns of individual ETF investors.

Key Takeaway

For BTC, watch the near end of the lower liquidation zone around $76,800; for ETH, watch around $2,195. If a rebound occurs, monitor near $79,200 for BTC and $2,275 for ETH. The BTC ETF cost reference sits at a higher level and does not overlap with the current lower liquidation zone; before settlement, distinguish between short-term leverage volatility and cost recovery.

Options Expiration Alert

At 16:00 Beijing Time today, Deribit options maturing include approximately $10.41 billion in BTC and $770 million in ETH, totaling roughly $11.18 billion; the max pain levels corresponding to the 09:13 snapshot are $78,000 for BTC and $2,400 for ETH. Monitor volatility from hedging adjustments around settlement; max pain does not predict the actual settlement price.

Major US Stock Index Performance

The Nasdaq's decline significantly exceeded that of the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500, highlighting greater pressure on tech-heavy weight stocks. While major indices pulled back, healthcare and select other sectors still saw gains, reflecting market performance driven more by divergence in sector trends and earnings expectations.

Magnificent Seven Tech Giants Performance

Among the Magnificent Seven, 2 advanced and 5 declined, with Alphabet posting the largest drop, while Apple and Meta rose. Amazon's earnings were released after these close times, so the 4.25% decline shown in the table cannot be interpreted as a complete market reaction to the report.

Sector Movement Watch

Tech & Storage: Alphabet fell 12.64%, Micron dropped 4.98%, Oracle fell 3.45%; Vertiv rose 1.23%. Internal divergence among AI-related stocks continues; orders and cash flows for cloud platforms, chipmakers, and equipment suppliers must be monitored separately.

Healthcare & Industrials: Eli Lilly rose 6.63%, while Caterpillar fell 9.25%. Both had earnings catalysts during the same period, reflecting that markets trade not only quarterly profits but also reassess future growth and guidance.

Crypto-Related Stocks: Coinbase fell 1.07%, Strategy dropped 2.44%, Robinhood rose 0.17%. Regular stock closing times and this morning's crypto market snapshot cover different periods and should not be directly treated as synchronized reactions.

III. In-Depth Analysis of Key US Stocks

Alphabet | Significant Pressure on First Full Trading Day Post-Earnings

Event Overview: Alphabet closed at $283.82 on October 29, down 12.64%. Previously reported Q3 revenue grew 25% year-over-year, Google Cloud revenue surged 103%, but free cash flow for the quarter was negative $9.065 billion.

Market Interpretation: High growth coexists with cash outflow pressures, and Cloud growth includes TPU system sales. The stock price reaction indicates that revenue expansion must be evaluated alongside ROI and cash collection; Cloud growth alone cannot dictate financial report quality.

Investment Takeaways: Focus subsequently on capex, cloud revenue structure, and the path to improving free cash flow. A single day of sharp decline does not independently prove a reversal in long-term demand; the key is whether subsequent financial results improve.

Amazon | AWS Growth Accelerates, Capex Continues to Press Cash Flow

Event Overview: Amazon closed regular trading at $243.79, down 4.25%, before releasing Q3 results. Net sales reached $201.9 billion, up 12% YoY; AWS sales were approximately $46 billion, up 39.3% YoY.

Market Interpretation: Over the trailing twelve months ending late September, free cash flow net outflow was approximately $42.4 billion, primarily driven by increased investments in AI-related equipment. Prime Day moving from Q3 last year to Q2 this year also impacted YoY comparability for retail revenue.

Investment Takeaways: Key focus areas include the conversion of AWS growth into cash returns, the pace of equipment spending, and peak season retail performance. The aforementioned free cash flow reflects a trailing twelve-month figure, not a single-quarter outflow.

Coinbase | Returns to Profitability, Distinction Needed Between GAAP and Adjusted Performance

Event Overview: Coinbase closed regular trading at $160.59, down 1.07%, and disclosed after-hours Q3 results showing total revenue of approximately $1.2 billion and net income of $719 million. Adjusted net income was $78 million, with adjusted EBITDA at $333 million.

Market Interpretation: There is a significant gap between GAAP net income and adjusted profit; net income cannot be entirely attributed to sustainable profits from trading operations. Subscription and services revenue accounts for 49% of net revenue, indicating the business model is diversifying across more income streams.

Investment Takeaways: Monitor the ongoing contribution from trading revenue, stablecoins, and subscription services, comparing adjusted profitability against expense growth. After-hours results should be evaluated against subsequent market reactions independently.

IV. Market & Project Updates

Local E-commerce |DoorDashFinalizes Agreement to Acquire Instacart

DoorDash and Instacart announced on October 29 that they have finalized an agreement valuing the deal at $65 per share, representing an equity value of approximately $17 billion, with consideration consisting of at least 75% cash. The transaction is expected to close by late 2027 or early H1 2028, pending shareholder and regulatory approvals.

This combination merges delivery networks, grocery fulfillment, and retail technology, though the deal is not yet closed. Monitor approvals, financing, and integration execution; do not treat synergy expectations as realized profits.

Trading PlatformUpdate | Official Response

Binance officially stated that it is aware of reports regarding potential security issues and is actively investigating; user funds are secure. Verified information will be released through official channels.

V. Today's Market Calendar

All times are in Beijing Time; importance ratings are editor assessments.

Key Events Preview: ECI will supplement wage and benefit cost data, aiding judgment on whether inflation pressures are passing through to labor costs. For energy earnings, focus on production, profit, and cash returns within the oil price environment; for crypto markets, monitor volatility around the 16:00 settlement.

Institutional Views: On October 29, Baird Investment Strategy Analyst Ross Mayfield noted that small-cap stocks remain relatively strong despite pressure on tech equities, suggesting concerns over AI trades have not yet spread across all sectors. Subsequent observation of breadth and divergent corporate earnings will help determine whether this pullback represents sector rotation or broader risk contraction.

This article provides only market information and research observations and does not constitute investment advice.