CITIC Securities: Still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 bp in December

CITIC Securities research report states that the Federal Reserve remained on hold as expected in October, with a more optimistic tone regarding the pace of economic expansion and a more cautious guidance on policy stance. Waller's post-meeting remarks were more moderate than in September, mentioning that the credit environment has tightened and inflation expectations are moving in the right direction, also indicating adjustments to the FOMC meeting schedule in the next couple of years.

The report still expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by 25 basis points in December and states that the terminal rate of this rate hike cycle may not be far from the current level. The new variables in the Middle East situation are still insufficient to provide a clear and lasting exit path for both the U.S. and Iran, and high oil prices may continue until the situation becomes clearer, while further improvement in U.S. dollar liquidity requires new catalysts.