Bitget UEX Daily | US Stocks Broadly Rally, NVIDIA Drops Alone; Oil Prices Plunge, Easing Inflation Concerns; Tonight's CPI to Set the Tone

Author: Bitget

I. Featured Hot News

Energy | Oil Prices Plunge, Market Lowers Middle East Supply Risk Premium

The U.S. continues to send easing signals regarding diplomatic negotiations with Iran, reducing market concerns over further military escalation. WTI December futures fell 4.38%, settling at $86.85/barrel; Brent January futures dropped 5.85%, settling at $92.57/barrel.

The decline in oil prices simultaneously improves corporate cost structures and inflation expectations, providing support for a stock market rebound. However, there is still a gap between diplomatic progress and a final agreement. The current changes mainly reflect the market's repricing of supply risks.

U.S. Economy | Inflation Expectations Steady, Employment Concerns Rise

An October survey published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York on November 9 showed that consumer one-year, three-year, and five-year inflation expectations remained steady at 3.9%, 3.3%, and 3.0%, respectively. The average probability that consumers expect unemployment rates to rise in the future increased to 45.3%, the highest since April 2020.

Households have not further raised their inflation expectations, but concerns about employment prospects have deepened. This offers a different perspective compared to previous strong non-farm payrolls data. Tonight's CPI release will provide evidence of actual price pressures, determining whether markets can further ease tightening expectations.

China Price Data | Mild CPI, Stronger PPI, Industry Chains Face Divergent Price Pressures

China's October CPI rose 0.7% year-on-year, while core CPI increased by 0.8%; PPI rose 5.7% year-on-year and 0.7% month-on-month. Energy-related industries were a key driver of industrial price increases.

The divergence between consumer-end and upstream price trends indicates that cost pressures do not necessarily align with end-market pricing power. For manufacturing and consumer companies, subsequent focus should be on gross margins and cost pass-through effects rather than solely relying on PPI increases to judge broad demand recovery.

II. Market Review

Commodities and Forex Performance

Weakness in the U.S. dollar supports precious metals, while the decline in oil prices eases energy-related inflation concerns, though U.S. Treasury yields continue to rise. Asset prices are adjusting prior pessimistic expectations, but rate pressures have not yet eased in tandem.

Cryptocurrency Performance

BTC traded at 75,080.92 USDT, down 0.23% in 24 hours; ETH traded at 2,128.46 USDT, down 0.69% in 24 hours, as of approximately 09:49–09:51 Beijing Time. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization was approximately $2.52 trillion, down 1.81% in 24 hours, with a 24-hour trading volume of approximately $75.568 billion; aggregate data was independently updated at 09:26.

BTC/ETH Liquidation Levels Observation: No verifiable latest liquidation zones were obtained this time; upper/lower ranges, distances, or near-side liquidation assessments are temporarily omitted.

Institutional Holding Cost | BTC: Strategy disclosed on November 9 that it holds 850,364 BTC, with an overall average cost of $75,456. Compared to the USD coin price at that time, BTC is approximately 0.65% below this cost, reflecting a reference unrealized loss position. This cost corresponds to the entire holding and cannot be replaced by the average price of the most recent purchase.

Market Snapshot in One Sentence: BTC remains entrenched around the $75,000 level, with crypto assets yet to see a repair rally matching the intensity of U.S. equities. Key focus lies on the USD and U.S. Treasury yield reaction post-CPI release, and whether BTC can sustain its position near institutional cost bases. Institutional costs do not equate to new buying pressure nor act as guaranteed support.

U.S. Stock Major Index Performance

Movement Analysis

Market Performance: All three major indices rose over 2%, with six of the Magnificent Seven tech stocks posting gains and one falling. AMD surged 13.26%, while Nvidia bucked the trend, falling 4.27%. This indicates that sector-wide recovery and company-specific risks are being priced separately.

Logic One: Falling oil prices ease cost and inflation concerns. Declining energy prices improve corporate profit expectations and reduce market worries about energy shocks continuously pushing up prices, providing macroeconomic support for the rebound.

Logic Two: Previously pressured AI supply chains continue to recover. The rebound in chip stocks like AMD reflects the market reassessing the extent of earlier sell-offs. While uncertainties around construction and regulation remain to be monitored, investors are beginning to differentiate between potential constraints and actual order losses.

Logic Three: Nvidia faces additional company-level pressures. An independent board investigation adds governance uncertainty, preventing it from rising alongside the broader chip sector. A broad market rebound does not mean all company-specific issues vanish simultaneously.

Magnificent Seven Tech Stocks Performance

Tesla and Meta led the gains, with Nvidia remaining the only decliner. Driven by different factors across platform, automotive, and semiconductor stocks, a single leader's downturn is insufficient to represent the entire tech sector.

Sector Movement Observations

Semiconductors: AMD rose 13.26%, creating a sharp divergence against Nvidia's decline. The focus shifts from whether the sector rebounds to assessing customer demand, order deliveries, and individual company risks.

Power & Alternative Asset Management: Constellation rose 10.46%, and KKR gained 1.67%, both supported by that day's earnings reports. Concrete profitability improvements provided company-level validation for the broad rally.

III. Key U.S. Stock Analyses

Nvidia NVDA | Independent Investigation Overshadows Sector Rebound

Event Overview: Nvidia closed at $178.67, down 4.27%. On November 8, the board announced an independent investigation into safety concerns highlighted by external reports, while stating there is currently no reason to believe national security or company secrets have been compromised, and affirming continued support for Jensen Huang and the management team.

Market Interpretation: Current incremental pressure primarily stems from uncertainty surrounding governance and investigation outcomes. The stock price decline does not directly prove that customer orders or product competitiveness have been impaired, and the board's statement does not equate to the conclusion of the investigation.

Investment Implications: Subsequent verification of board updates, management arrangements, and client cooperation progress is warranted, with a primary focus on determining whether governance issues will further impact operational execution.

Constellation CEG | Profit Realization and Raised Full-Year Guidance

Event Overview: The company reported Q3 GAAP EPS of $5.19 and adjusted operating EPS of $5.06, surpassing the prior year's $3.04; full-year adjusted operating EPS guidance was narrowed to $12.50–$12.80, with the midpoint raised. The stock climbed 10.46%, closing at $276.09.

Market Interpretation: Current profitability and raised guidance provide concrete validation for power demand and the business portfolio. Value realization for power companies still hinges on generation capacity, contract terms, and project commissioning, warranting valuation beyond just AI-themed metrics.

Investment Implications: Monitor nuclear capacity expansion, long-term power purchase agreement execution, and financing costs. The company's disclosed maximum $5 billion DOE loan commitment comes with conditions requiring subsequent agreement fulfillment.

KKR | Adjusted Profit Growth, Focus on Recurring Revenue

Event Overview: KKR reported Q3 adjusted net profit of approximately $1.645 billion, up 29% year-over-year, with adjusted EPS of $1.78; fee-related profit stood at approximately $1.3 billion, up 27% YoY. The stock rose 1.67%, closing at $98.09.

Market Interpretation: Growth in fee-related profit provides support for recurring earnings, but adjusted profit differs from GAAP profit metrics and includes contributions from various businesses. Assessing sustainability requires analyzing fee-generating assets, fundraising activity, and investment exits.

Investment Implications: Track the pace at which new capital raises convert into fee-generating assets, and assess whether exit proceeds can be sustained. Avoid extrapolating a single-quarter peak realization directly into comparable quarterly growth rates.

IV. Market and Project Dynamics

Strategy Updates Purchase Data and Overall Cost: The company disclosed on November 9 that it purchased 1,036 BTC between November 2 and 8 for approximately $81.9 million, at an average acquisition price of $79,012. This weekly accumulation and the overall average cost base represent different metrics and do not indicate immediate buying pressure today.

Nvidia Expands South Korean Sovereign AI Partnership: The company plans to collaborate with Rebellions and SK Telecom, integrating NVLink Fusion, Korea-designed NPUs, and data center capabilities. The relevant R200 systems are expected to be deployment-ready by 2028, and partnership planning cannot yet be counted as realized revenue.

CoreWeave earnings draw after-hours attention tonight. The company plans to host a Q3 earnings call at 17:00 Eastern Time on November 10 (06:00 Beijing Time on November 11). Key observations will focus on order-to-revenue conversion, project deliveries, and financing costs. Unreleased earnings are not cited as of this report's publication time.

V. Today's Market Calendar

Key Event Forecast: The CPI report will focus on the month-on-month change in core prices, followed by monitoring whether the dollar and yields respond in tandem. Yesterday's oil price decline influences future inflation expectations and should not be used to prematurely conclude that October's CPI will come in low; the household debt report will instead provide clues regarding credit card and auto loan consumption pressures.

Institutional Views: Morgan Stanley and UBS noted in their November 9 market commentaries that the recent sell-off in AI stocks was excessive, carrying a lower risk of extreme regulatory measures targeting data centers. This represents institutional judgment on policy impacts, which still requires verification through actual regulations and project advancements.

This article is for market information purposes only and does not constitute investment advice.

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