JPMorgan: Tesla Optimus Mass Production Guidance of 10,000 to 20,000 Units; Supply Chain Preference Favors Components

according to Chaoxiang Research, JPMorgan's October 22, 2026 research report indicates that Tesla Optimus has already begun production in Fremont, with Musk providing pre-external-sales production guidance of 10,000 to 20,000 units, below the market's most optimistic expectations; external commercial shipment targets are set for the end of 2027; the AI5 chip is planned to be integrated in April 2027, with computing power approximately 10 times that of AI4.

JPMorgan assesses that mass production will ramp up gradually, with the hands remaining the primary hardware bottleneck and supply chain opportunities shifting from complete robots to components. It recommends overweighting Hengli Hydraulic and Sanhua Intelligent Controls, accumulating Green Harmonic and Orbbec, maintaining a neutral stance on Inovance Technology and UBTECH, and reducing positions in Estun and Unitree Robotics.