Analysis: BTC rebound hinges on spot demand and leverage changes

on Nov. 10, according to analysis by XWIN Japan, the post-Bitcoin dip rally lacks sustained spot demand, and whether the recovery can be maintained will depend on whether spot buying can absorb potential exchange supply.

CryptoQuant data shows that the proportion of the top 10 deposits in exchange BTC inflows has repeatedly exceeded 0.4 since late October, indicating rising concentration of large deposits, though this cannot be used to prove that whales have already sold. The estimated leverage ratio increased from approximately 0.22 to 0.24 in mid-October to around 0.265 in early November, before retreating to 0.249, remaining above mid-October levels.

XWIN Japan recommends monitoring the spot cumulative volume differential, Coinbase premium, ETF fund flows, and leverage changes before determining whether the rally can continue.