Bitcoin breaks the bearish trend seen before the last three U.S. midterm elections, with its price now above the 200-day moving average

Bitcoin was below its 200-day moving average on the U.S. midterm election days in 2014, 2018, and 2022, respectively about 35%, 9%, and 22% lower. This year is different. Bitcoin is currently trading at about $76,990, 5.2% above the 200-day moving average of about $73,169, indicating a relatively strong long-term trend.

The 2026 Bitcoin bear market is shallower and the decline came earlier, with the main correction concentrated in January and February of this year. Martin Lee, head of research at DWF Labs, said historical data shows that in the first few months after midterm elections, Bitcoin typically trades in a choppy or slightly bearish manner, but has risen over the following 12 months in each case. He believes the long-term historical trend is favorable for Bitcoin, but short-term volatility still warrants caution, especially given the impact of escalating geopolitical conflicts and the ongoing drag on risk assets from AI trading. (CoinDesk)