Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud: Fed's Pause Does Not Equal a Dovish Turn, Rate Hike Uncertainty Left for December

In the early hours of October 29 Beijing time, the Federal Reserve announced it would keep the federal funds rate unchanged in the 3.75% to 4.00% range, in line with market expectations. The decision passed by a 10-2 vote, with Governor Cook and Cleveland Fed President Hammack dissenting in favor of a 25 basis point rate hike. The statement noted strong economic expansion, with inflation still elevated. Following the announcement, U.S. stocks gave back modest gains, while Treasury yields and the dollar index edged higher. In response, Huobi HTX Chief Analyst Cloud commented that the two dissenting votes indicate a clear hawkish voice within the committee, and that Warsh's decision not to provide forward guidance while only emphasizing bringing inflation back to 2% in a timely manner effectively leaves the uncertainty over rate hikes fully intact for December.

September CPI has already hit a five-month high, with approximately 76% of surveyed institutions expecting another rate hike in December. This pause does not equate to a dovish pivot, and dollar liquidity constraints continue to tighten. For crypto assets, every rebound in short-term rates and the dollar will first pressure altcoins, then test Bitcoin's ability to absorb the selling pressure. Ahead of the midterm elections and the end of earnings season, the market remains in a high-volatility window.

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