Day 1 After Binance’s Largest-Ever Hack: $3.6 Billion On-Chain Outflow, $600 Million Bitcoin ETF Outflow
Author: Kuli, TechFlow
Ten hours after Binance resumed withdrawals at 14:00 Beijing Time on November 1, the platform processed $4.649 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, resulting in a net outflow of approximately $3.64 billion, which accounts for 2.1% of its total assets worth $171 billion.
On the same day, US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of $643.2 million, setting a record for the largest daily outflow in October. Superimposing these two data streams provides the first quantifiable benchmark for trust costs in the crypto market following the $6.3 billion heist. Binance stated that it has covered 95% of the stolen assets, withdrawal volumes have stabilized after an initial peak, and the platform's total assets showed full coverage across ten major asset categories in its proof of reserves as of October 31.
On-Chain: $3.64 Billion Net Outflow
Binance began resuming withdrawals in phases at 14:00 Beijing Time on November 1, completing the full restoration of the first batch of 15 networks and assets by 14:36. Supported withdrawal assets included major coins such as Bitcoin, Ethereum, USDT, USDC, BNB, SOL, and XRP. The withdrawal window remained open until 23:30 Beijing Time (15:30 UTC). Binance issued a statement on X, noting that during this period, the platform processed $4.649 billion in withdrawals and $1.01 billion in deposits, yielding a net outflow of approximately $3.64 billion.
This net outflow magnitude represents 2.1% of its $171 billion in total assets, based on the latest available proof of reserves as of October 31.
Binance indicated that withdrawal volumes decreased and stabilized after an initial peak, while deposit amounts remained substantial.
The hacker attack occurred at 04:05 Beijing Time on October 30. At that time, US stock markets had already closed, and the US market would not see its first full trading day until the 31st (Friday).
Consequently, the on-chain data and ETF data were offset by roughly a day, and only when combined do they form a complete picture of capital flows.
ETF: Institutions Lead the Way Out, but Structural Bottom Line Remains Intact
US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded a single-day net outflow of $643.2 million on October 31 (Friday), marking the first full trading day for US stock markets following the hacking incident and setting the record for the largest daily outflow in October.
The hackers began transferring assets at 4:05 PM ET on October 29, when US stock markets had already closed. On Thursday, ETFs still recorded a net inflow of $17.2 million. Friday's outflow wiped out the cumulative net inflows of $441 million over the previous four consecutive days, resulting in a weekly net outflow of approximately $202 million and an overall monthly net outflow of around $516 million for October. Cumulative net inflows since launch have dropped to $57.4 billion, with total net assets at approximately $103.2 billion.
Ethereum ETFs experienced an outflow of $155.7 million on the same day, extending their losing streak to five consecutive days, accumulating about $431 million in outflows for the week, and recording a net outflow of approximately $1.61 billion for the entire month. Solana ETFs saw an outflow of $10.8 million, also marking the fifth consecutive day of outflows, with net inflows occurring on only two days throughout the month.
In absolute terms, the single-day outflow of $643 million from Bitcoin ETFs did not breach the structural bottom line: cumulative net inflows of $57.4 billion and total net assets of $103.2 billion show no signs of systematic liquidation. However, as this was only the first full trading day, sustainability requires verification through subsequent data.
Market Pricing Stable, but Bearish Tendencies Emerge
Bitcoin fell approximately 4% to around $76,400 on Friday, triggering the liquidation of leveraged positions exceeding $1.3 billion. Compared to previous sharp sell-offs, the market reaction was noticeably more restrained.
By Saturday, Bitcoin stabilized around $77,520, down 3.3% from a week prior; Ethereum hovered near $2,251, falling 3.9%; and Solana traded at approximately $96, declining 4.5%. The total cryptocurrency market capitalization remained steady at around $2.7 trillion.
Prediction market data indicates shifting sentiment toward the bears: the probability of Ethereum reaching $3,000 before dipping to $1,500 is priced at 48.7%, down from 61.3% a week ago; the likelihood of Solana rallying to $160 before falling to $40 has risen to 53.7%. Macroeconomically, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates between 3.75% and 4.0% on November 1, but two officials voted in favor of hiking rates, with the market pricing in a December rate hike at over 70%.
Current data reflects the initial market response within 48 to 72 hours after the incident. Two key milestones will dictate the subsequent trajectory.
The first is Binance's comprehensive proof of reserves: the snapshot dated October 31 was completed prior to the mass withdrawals, and an updated version incorporating the latest outflow data is expected to be released at the end of November. This will serve as the first true report reflecting reserve conditions following the hacking incident.
The second is the sustainability of ETF capital flows: whether this outflow represents a single-day panic reaction or a trend-driven exit requires at least a week of data accumulation to determine.