Analysis: The majority of those who bought BTC in the past 3 to 6 months are reluctant to take profits at the moment, opting instead for medium to long-term trading.

September 13 - Analyst Murphy stated that on-chain data can provide a relatively clear understanding of the trading mentality of representative investors at the current stage.

First, the group that bought BTC in the past 3-6 months has realized very few profits. In other words, most of those who bought at the bottom during this period are unwilling to take profits at the current position. These are the STH (short-term holders) closest to LTH (long-term holders). Traders who are not selling now are most likely aiming for medium-to-long-term trades.

Additionally, the group that bought BTC in the past 6-12 months has realized significant losses. This almost covers all the chips from the entire bear market period. Many of these LTH are not true believers. They merely became passive long-term holders after incurring paper losses. Therefore, every time there is a major drop or rebound, they are the most unstable group. From a macro cycle perspective, BTC cannot fully enter the next stage until this type of selling pressure is gradually released.

Recently, Murphy published an article discussing why Bitcoin struggles to break through $82,000? First, short-term holders' chips (STH) are distributed between $59,000 and $81,000. If it breaks through $82,000, some short-term speculative funds will choose to take profits, which is the first layer of selling pressure. Second, the most concentrated chip peak for long-term holders (LTH) happens to be at $81,000 to $82,000. When the price approaches break-even, they will choose to exit. This is the second layer of selling pressure. The analyst believes that breaking through $82,000 does indeed face resistance in the short term, and the market needs time to digest divergence and absorb supply. After the market regains strength and successfully breaks through, the road ahead will be smooth.